Does Brexit mean Ireland must stand united or fall by the wayside?

Analysis 

By Bernard Thompson

One of the most intriguing questions for the British Isles, following the Leave vote in the European Union referendum is how Ireland will be affected.

Martin McGuinness: Time for a vote on Ireland's status

With Northern Ireland having voted 56%-44% in favour of EU membership, a complex set of challenges lies ahead, and Sinn Fein's Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness, predictably, has said that it is time to put the question of Northern Ireland's status to the people.

Northern Ireland is in a unique position in that it has been the subject of competing territorial claims by Britain and the Republic of Ireland since long before Britain and Ireland joined the European Economic Community in 1973.

That conveniently avoided any complications of the open border arrangement that had allowed free movement between Northern Ireland and the Republic for decades. Maintaining that arrangement was also a key reason for Ireland declining to join the Schengen zone, to which Britain was stridently opposed.

However, it is difficult to see how an open border could be maintained in the event of the two countries having differing immigration policies.

And, superficially, the prospect of formally uniting under a 32-county republic would hold some obvious attractions for people in the north, who could guarantee maintaining existing trade conditions with a seamless transition (with regard to EU membership).

Northern Ireland also benefits significantly from agricultural subsidies and “peace money” from the EU.

On the other hand, it remains to be seen how those primarily trading with the UK would be affected by such a move.

Under pressure: Taoiseach Enda Kenny

In June, Taoiseach Enda Kenny warned that Brexit would have an adverse effect on the €1.2 billion worth of trade that takes place between the UK and Ireland every week, though that view was not universally shared with Kenny's critics pointing to other bi-lateral trade agreements.

Cross-border healthcare arrangements have immediately been called into question as well as other joint activities, such as research.

Ireland may also benefit from post-Brexit bank relocations, with several of the big players said to be considering Dublin along with Paris and Frankfurt, amongst other options.

All of this may make a united Ireland sufficiently appealing to enough formerly unionist voters to conclude that their lives would be simpler and their futures more profitable under Dublin rule.

Of course, whenever that issue is raised, fears arise of a return to the paramilitary conflict that blighted the 1970s-90s and that threat undoubtedly remains.

And one of the major worries – restrictions to work, study and travel in the rest of the EU – do not apply to people in Northern Ireland as they have a constitutional right to Irish citizenship, so long as they, a parent or grandparent were born anywhere on the island.

McGuinness has said he has requested an urgent meeting with the taoiseach to discuss the EU referendum result.

McGuinness called for an urgent meeting with Kenny, who he said must defend the wishes of the majority of Northern Ireland people who voted to remain in the EU.

The Irish parliament – the Dáil – is to be recalled on Monday to discuss the implications of the Brexit vote.

Kenny, at least, will be keen to remain on good terms with Downing Street but he can expect to come under considerable pressure, especially as he leads a minority Fine Gael administration.

The push for some form of referendum will be intense with one of the key questions being whether the vote will only be for Northern Ireland residents or voters on the whole island.

For some Northern Ireland unionists, their imaginations will now be entertaining the once-unthinkable, though that will not be without pain.

The question is: how many will be swayed by pragmatism over issues of culture, religion and national identity.

And how much do they stand to gain?