Wednesday 29 June 2016

Central European leaders demand fair European Union settlement with the UK after Brexit vote

Body representing Hungary, Czechia, Poland and Slovakia urges greater trust and co-operation

Four countries in central Europe have jointly called for a stronger union of trust and co-operation to emerge, following the UK's vote to leave the European Union.

The flags of Slovakiam Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and the European UnionCelebrating its 25th anniversary, the Visegrad Group (V4), which co-ordinates collective efforts on behalf of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia within the EU issued a statement on Tuesday expressing “deep regret” at Britain's decision to leave.

However, they added that they will respect “this sovereign decision” and that “the European Union of 27 Member States will continue” but that they must find ways for the EU to emerge from the crisis stronger than before.

The group also issued a call for clarity, reciprocity and fairness.

“The countries of the Visegrad Group strongly urge that the focus of the upcoming negotiations must be on protecting EU interests. European citizens and European companies cannot end up worse off than British citizens and British companies.”

Common project

V4 identified the need for a strengthening of trust between member states and between the EU and citizens of its member countries.

“We too, as the European Union, have to look afresh at our common project. Not because of the United Kingdom’s decision, but because the Union needs to come out of this challenge stronger. We need to focus our attention on a smooth secession process and a new cooperation agreement with the UK as well as the EU reform agenda.”

“We are stronger together because our Union is based on a consensus on key values, principles and priorities. The challenge for the upcoming months will be to translate this consensus as effectively as possible into the everyday life of the Union.”

“However, we can never succeed unless we create a genuine Union of trust.... The genuine concerns of our citizens need to be better reflected. National parliaments have to be heard.

L to R: Viktor Orbán, Bohuslav Sobotka, Beata Maria Szydło, 
Robert Fico, PMs of Hungary, Czechia, Poland and 
Slovakia, respectively.
“Trust also needs to be fostered among Member States, starting with overcoming the artificial and unnecessary dividing lines we have seen emerging in past few months.”

Better Europe

V4 insist that by building trust through better co-operation and being more practically focussed, the EU will become more effective in its operations.

“Instead of endless theoretical debates on 'more Europe' or 'less Europe' we need to focus on 'better Europe'.

“The countries of the Visegrad Group thus believe that working on these objectives will deliver a Union of trust and action only if all 27 Member States are at the table in their diversity and provide their unique inputs.

“Connected in such [a] Union, we will be faster in our decision making and stronger, both internally and externally, to be able to better react to challenges before us. Only thus will we become attractive again both to our citizens as well as globally providing a tangible proof that a united Europe remains the best option.”

Tuesday 28 June 2016

Farage called 'a liar; as Brexit prompts angry exchanges in Strasbourg

Farage and Juncker clash while Scottish MEP gets standing ovation

No love lost: Nigel farage and Jean-Claude Juncker
It was a day of strong feelings and mixed receptions at the European Parliament in Strasbourg today, with Nigel Farage called a “liar” and the UKIP leader responding that most MEPs had “never had a proper job in your lives”.

Amid often bruising encounter, called to discuss Britain's referendum decision to quit the European Union there was also an emotional plea to the parliament from Scottish MEP Alyn Smith “not to let Scotland down”.

It was the first time that a plenary session had been convened at such short notice, but European Parliament President Martin Schulz noted that the UK citizens’ decision to leave the EU was equally unprecedented. It was also the first session since Lord Hill's resignation from the EU Commission.

Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission President, called for clarity and jibed at UKIP leader Nigel Farage: “Why are you here?”

We must respect the will of the British people,” Juncker said but “there must be consequences”.

He asked the British government to “clarify” the situation as soon as possible, to prevent uncertainty.

No notification, no negotiations”, he said, insisting there would be no secret or informal talks with London.

Taunts

Juncker then taunted Farage: “You are fighting for the exit, the British people voted for the exit, so why are you here?”

Danish MEP Manfred Weber went further, calling Farage “a liar” in a reference to pro-Leave campaign claims about Turkey joining the EU and £350m being spent on the National Health service, rather than EU membership.

We now expect an Article 50 notification and swift and fair exit negotiations”, he insisted, adding that “the times of appeasement are over” and urging politicians to stop “bashing Brussels” and take responsibility.

Weber also promised Britain's young people, more than 73% of whom voted Remain, ““We won’t leave you on your own”.

Farage, who seemed to be relishing the occasion, reminded the chamber that those who had laughed at him 17 years ago, when he arrived in Parliament announcing a campaign to leave the EU, were “not laughing now”.

Denial

You, as a political project, are in denial”, he said, “You’re in denial that your currency is failing. Just look at the Mediterranean!”

He went on to say that the EU had “done very well” by “imposing poverty” on Greece and the Mediterranean.

Farage also returned to the issue of immigration.

You’re in denial over Mrs. Merkel’s call for as many people as possible to cross the Mediterranean – which has led to massive divisions between within countries and between countries.”

Predicting that the UK would not be the last member state to leave the Union. He warned that if the EU were to reject “a sensible trade deal”, then the consequences would be far worse for the 27 than for the UK.

Deal or no deal

Even no deal is better for the UK than the rotten deal we have now”, he said.

But if we were to move to a position where tariffs were reintroduced on products like motor cars then hundreds of thousands of German works would risk losing their jobs.

Why don’t we be grown up, pragmatic, sensible, realistic and let’s cut between us a sensible tariff-free deal and thereafter recognise that the United Kingdom will be your friend, that we will trade with you, cooperate with you, we will be your best friends in the world.”

However, amid jeers and some laughter, Farage jibed at his fellow MEPS: “"I know that virtually none of you have ever done a proper job in your lives or worked in business or worked in trade or ever created a job."

Belgium's Guy Verhofstadt likened the Leave campaign to Nazi propaganda and said it had been based on lies that created a climate of fear and “negativism”.

Echoing Juncker's attack on Farage, Verhofstadt said: “Finally we are going to get rid of the biggest waste in the EU Budget, which we have paid for 17 years, your salary!”

Welcoming Brexit: Marine Le Pen
Farage received support from France's Front National leader Marine Le Pen who called the UK vote the “by far the most important historic event since the fall of the Berlin wall” and an outcry of love of the British people for their country.

She described the Brexit vote as a slap in the face for “EU tenants” and showed that the EU project is not irreversible, she added. Delaying implementation of the decision would not be democratic, she warned.

MEPs were naturally anxious to end the uncertainty surrounding Brexit with Dutch minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert saying that no-one would benefit from “a prolonged period of political limbo."

She added: “Now, a part of Europe's challenge is to convince citizens that unity remains the best choice. The fact that fragmentation is no longer unthinkable, should gravely concern us all.”

That sentiment was echoed by the Italian Socialists & Democrats group leader Gianni Pittella, who said: “The European Union cannot become a hostage to the internal party politics of the Conservatives.”

Both, however recognised that it was important to give the UK the time it needed to start the process.

'Do not let Scotland down'

Alyn Smith received a standing ovation for his speech in which he described himself as ‘proudly Scottish and proudly European’.

He added: “I want my country to be internationalist, cooperative, ecological, fair, European.

And the people of Scotland, along with the people of Northern Ireland, and the people of London and lots and lots of people in Wales and England also, voted to remain within our family of nations.
“I demand that that status and that esprit européen be respected.

Colleagues, there is a lot of things to be negotiated. We will need cool heads and warm hearts.


But please, remember this: Scotland did not let you down. Please, I beg you, chers collègues, do not let Scotland down now.”

Sunday 26 June 2016

Does Brexit mean Ireland must stand united or fall by the wayside?

Analysis 

By Bernard Thompson
One of the most intriguing questions for the British Isles, following the Leave vote in the European Union referendum is how Ireland will be affected.
Martin McGuinness: Time for a vote on Ireland's status

With Northern Ireland having voted 56%-44% in favour of EU membership, a complex set of challenges lies ahead, and Sinn Fein's Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness, predictably, has said that it is time to put the question of Northern Ireland's status to the people.

Northern Ireland is in a unique position in that it has been the subject of competing territorial claims by Britain and the Republic of Ireland since long before Britain and Ireland joined the European Economic Community in 1973.

That conveniently avoided any complications of the open border arrangement that had allowed free movement between Northern Ireland and the Republic for decades. Maintaining that arrangement was also a key reason for Ireland declining to join the Schengen zone, to which Britain was stridently opposed.

However, it is difficult to see how an open border could be maintained in the event of the two countries having differing immigration policies.

And, superficially, the prospect of formally uniting under a 32-county republic would hold some obvious attractions for people in the north, who could guarantee maintaining existing trade conditions with a seamless transition (with regard to EU membership).

Northern Ireland also benefits significantly from agricultural subsidies and “peace money” from the EU.

On the other hand, it remains to be seen how those primarily trading with the UK would be affected by such a move.

Under pressure: Taoiseach Enda Kenny
In June, Taoiseach Enda Kenny warned that Brexit would have an adverse effect on the €1.2 billion worth of trade that takes place between the UK and Ireland every week, though that view was not universally shared with Kenny's critics pointing to other bi-lateral trade agreements.

Cross-border healthcare arrangements have immediately been called into question as well as other joint activities, such as research.

Ireland may also benefit from post-Brexit bank relocations, with several of the big players said to be considering Dublin along with Paris and Frankfurt, amongst other options.

All of this may make a united Ireland sufficiently appealing to enough formerly unionist voters to conclude that their lives would be simpler and their futures more profitable under Dublin rule.

Of course, whenever that issue is raised, fears arise of a return to the paramilitary conflict that blighted the 1970s-90s and that threat undoubtedly remains.

And one of the major worries – restrictions to work, study and travel in the rest of the EU – do not apply to people in Northern Ireland as they have a constitutional right to Irish citizenship, so long as they, a parent or grandparent were born anywhere on the island.

McGuinness has said he has requested an urgent meeting with the taoiseach to discuss the EU referendum result.

McGuinness called for an urgent meeting with Kenny, who he said must defend the wishes of the majority of Northern Ireland people who voted to remain in the EU.

The Irish parliament – the Dáil – is to be recalled on Monday to discuss the implications of the Brexit vote.

Kenny, at least, will be keen to remain on good terms with Downing Street but he can expect to come under considerable pressure, especially as he leads a minority Fine Gael administration.

The push for some form of referendum will be intense with one of the key questions being whether the vote will only be for Northern Ireland residents or voters on the whole island.

For some Northern Ireland unionists, their imaginations will now be entertaining the once-unthinkable, though that will not be without pain.

The question is: how many will be swayed by pragmatism over issues of culture, religion and national identity.

And how much do they stand to gain?

Nicola Sturgeon doesn't have a veto – but the SNP may have a big decision to make

Analysis

By Bernard Thompson
The BBC has claimed that Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon could try to block Britain's Brexit from the European Union.

In fact, the broadcaster's website went so far as to say that Members of the Scottish Parliament “could veto Brexit”.

It's an interesting choice of words for an eye-catching headline but, of course, inaccurate.

The Scottish parliament has no powers of veto over British constitutional matters and so it is curious that the BBC should overstate the ability of either Sturgeon or Holyrood to influence events.

Speaking to Gordon Brewer on Sunday Politics Scotland, Sturgeon said: “If the Scottish parliament is judging this on the basis of what’s right for Scotland, then the option of saying we’re not going to vote for something that’s against Scotland’s interests, that’s got to be on the table. You’re not going to vote for something that is not in Scotland’s interests.”

While the article goes on to refine the difference between the Scottish parliament affirming or withholding its consent, it doesn't touch on an altogether trickier scenario – what happens in the event of a House of Commons motion calling on the UK government to discard the results of the “advisory” referendum.

Madness

Mooted before the referendum, the idea has been put forward by Labour's Tottenham MP David Lammy, who was quoted in the London Evening Standard on Saturday:

"We can stop this madness and bring this nightmare to an end through a vote in Parliament.

"Our sovereign Parliament needs to now vote on whether we should quit the EU.

"The referendum was an advisory, non-binding referendum. The Leave campaign's platform has already unravelled and some people wish they hadn't voted to leave.

"Parliament now needs to decide whether we should go forward with Brexit, and there should be a vote in Parliament next week.”

That would leave Sturgeon with a vital decision to make. Before the referendum she stated that only Scotland being dragged out of the EU against its will would represent sufficient material change to trigger a second Scottish independence referendum.

That scenario has now come to pass and calls for IndyRef2 have been immediate and vociferous.

Should the House of Commons vote on the issue of whether to press ahead with Brexit or ignore the referendum, the SNP's 54 MPs could well be vital.

Pro-Remain MPs significantly outnumber their pro-Leave counterparts but many will baulk at the idea of overturning a democratic expression of the people's will.

Dilemma

In that case, Sturgeon would have to decide whether to stand by her word as First Minister of Scotland and SNP leader, to take all possible steps to keep Scotland in the EU or go ahead with planning for IndyRef2, having weakened the democratic case for independence.

While Sturgeon would face the same issues of democratic principle as any other leader, such a scenario would surely alienate – and even enrage – some Scots, whichever way she chooses to turn.

If she declined to instruct her MPs to overturn Brexit, she would anger a substantial proportion of Remainers and face the accusation that she consented to leaving the EU. This would undermine one of the main pillars of the case for a second referendum.

If she ordered her party's MPs to vote to ignore the referendum, many of those hoping for a second chance at independence – with a ScotPulse survey for the Sunday Post finding 59% support – would see that as a betrayal.

Sturgeon has consistently said that, while she wants independence for Scotland, she does not want to achieve it through Brexit.

She may not have a veto but she could be forgiven, if she privately hoped that the consistency of those two positions were never to be tested.

David Cameron's resignation leads to Tory power scramble but Boris Johnson keeps it low-key while George Osborne is posted missing

On the way out: David Cameron
David Cameron took just a few hours to announce that he would resign as British Prime Minister at the Conservative Party's October conference, following defeat for his Remain campaign at the European Union referendum.

And it didn't take long for behind-the-scenes moves to find a replacement to begin.

Front-runner is, of course, Boris Johnson, one of the key figures on the Brexit side, though he he has been remarkably low-key in the wake of what must be his most audaciously calculated triumph, having spoken in support of the EU in 2013.

BorisL On the ru?
However, rather than actively campaigning, Johnson instead chose to play cricket.

Some have speculated the relatively muted responses of Johnson and fellow Brexiter, Justice Secretary Michael Gove suggest they may have been surprised by the result and got cold feet.

Another explanation is that both recognise that open triumphalism of the kind displayed by UKIP leader Nigel Farage would play badly to the 48% of voters who supported remain.

Cameron's friend Liam Fox wasted no time in allowing the PM's political corpse to go cold, announcing to the BBC that he considers himself to be a contender, saying: “'I'm not ruling it out, I'm not ruling it in – I'm going to think about it over this weekend”.

That, of course, in political speak is an early marker hoping to garner support and some momentum before other aspirants can get their campaigns in order.

Fox clearly believes that he has served his time in political purgatory after he "mistakenly allowed" his personal and professional lives to become "blurred" over a relationship with a political lobbyist.

Secretary of State for Education and Minister for Women and Equalities Nicky Morgan called for one of the two names on the ballot paper to be a woman, emphatically ruling herself in while Home Secretary Theresa May is considered by many to be the “stop Boris” candidate.
Heavy-hitting women: Nicky Morgan and Theresa May
May, however, was on the losing Remain side in the referendum and, though she is widely seen as a heavy-hitter.

Other possibles include May's fellow Remainer Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid, the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills.

While the leader of the Scottish Tories Ruth Davidson won many plaudits in England for her strong performance in favour of Remain, she is an unlikely contender, though her opposition to Johnson gained her admirers.

Whoever stands, it can be expected to be a bloody contest. Johnson is said to be about to be subjected to scrutiny of his colourful personal life as Cameron allies and Tory Remainers seek revenge.

As for Chancellor George Osborne – once thought likely to succeed Cameron – he is not currently accepting interviews in another bizarre twist, leading to speculation that he may be on a trip.

Labour MPs are revolting as cabinet ministers resign in bid to oust Jeremy Corbyn

At loggerheads: Hilary Benn and Jeremy Corbyn
Less than 48 hours after Britain woke up to find it had voted to leave the European Union, Labour MPs, including cabinet ministers moved to remove leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Whether that is sincerely because they believe that Corbyn cannot lead Labour to a General Election win or simply opportunism from those who never really supported him is a matter of conjecture.

However, Hilary Benn, who precipitated the coup with a 1am phone call on Sunday morning has hardly been Corbyn's most loyal follower. (Benn declared he had no confidence in Corbyn's leadership and was promptly sacked.)

When he made his speech on military action on Syria – directly defying his leader's line on the issue – many saw the move as a public challenge to Corbyn's leadership.

Benn insisted on the Andrew Marr Show that he didn't intend to stand as leader but, when asked by Marr if he was leading a coup, he stopped short of denial, preferring to say that he wouldn't use those words.

How this will play out in the UK remains to be seen.

It is only nine months since Corbyn won the party leadership with a massive endorsement (251,417 votes)in the popular vote and an online petition in support of Corbyn had garnered 173,000 supporters at the time of writing.
The Corbyn support petition
Benn – the the Shadow Cabinet leader of the unsuccessful Remain – was quick to note that Corbyn “didn't put much energy” into the EU debate, though deputy shadow chancellor John McDonnell, who is an arch ally of Corbyn, insisted that Labour had brought their voters out.

Benn's resignation was quickly followed by shadow health secretary Heidi Alexander, 
Gloria De Piero with the young people and voter registration brief and shadow Scottish secretary Ian Murray, Labours only MP for a Scottish constituency.

Meanwhile, deputy leader Tom Watson (who is not considered a natural supporter of Corbyn) was incommunicado, having spent the weekend partying at the Glastonbury Festival.
 

Saturday 25 June 2016

About the Brexit Blog

On 23rd June 2016, British voters went to the polls to decide whether the country should remain in the European or leave.

51.9% of voters (17,410,742) voted to Leave the EU with 48.1% (16,141,241) voting to remain.

This blog aims to examine what happens next.